$297 Million for 22-Year-Old Paolo Banchero — Is He Worth It?

The Orlando Magic's 2024-25 season ended in sobering fashion. A 120-89 blowout loss to the reigning champion Boston Celtics in Game 5 of the first round sealed their fate, 4-1. In truth, the result surprised no one. The Celtics are the NBA’s gold standard of balanced dominance, and the Magic were missing key starters Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner to season-ending injuries. Winning even one game—by a mere two points—was a moral victory of sorts. Their losses? Brutal. Margins of 17, 9, 9, and 31 points respectively. The average point differential: -16.5. That’s a canyon, not a gap.

But as the dust settles on the Magic’s season, the franchise faces a much bigger decision: the looming supermax extension of their young cornerstone, Paolo Banchero.

According to ESPN salary cap analyst Bobby Marks, Banchero becomes eligible this summer for a contract extension worth up to $247 million over five years. If he meets the criteria for the "Designated Rookie Extension"—which includes making an All-NBA team, winning MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year—he could push that figure to a staggering $297 million.

That’s right. Nearly $300 million. For a 22-year-old.

And here’s the twist: it might be a no-brainer.

Banchero by the Numbers

In his third NBA season, Banchero played 46 regular-season games due to an early-season injury but averaged an impressive 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. He shot 45.2% from the field, 32.0% from deep, and 72.7% at the free throw line, posting a true shooting percentage of 55.1%.

And when the lights got brighter in the playoffs—facing a Celtics squad known for suffocating defense—he turned it up even further: 29.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists per game, with shooting splits of 43.5/44.4/65.9. His true shooting dropped to 51.7%, but context matters: playoff efficiency almost always dips, especially against elite defenses like Boston’s.

For a 6'10" (2.08m) forward, Banchero’s offensive versatility is undeniable. He can initiate offense, create his own shot, and absorb contact. He’s not flawless—his decision-making, defense, and efficiency still have room to grow—but he's clearly a primary option. And most importantly, he’s proven he can carry that load on the playoff stage.

The Big Game DNA

It’s not just the regular-season numbers or his lofty draft pedigree as a No. 1 overall pick that justify the extension—it's the fact that Banchero has shown up when it matters most. Playoff production is often the best indicator of a player’s true ceiling, and by that metric, Banchero already belongs in elite company.

Last postseason, as a sophomore, he dragged the Magic through a seven-game war against the Cavaliers. His numbers: 27.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists per game. In the most critical contests?

• Game 5 (on the road): 39 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists

• Game 6 (elimination game): 27 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists

• Game 7 (do-or-die): 38 points, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals

Those aren’t just big stats—they’re franchise player stats. They’re “put the team on my back” stats.

And it’s not just about offense. In this year’s first-round series, Banchero’s on/off splits revealed his true value: the Magic were only outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor across 197 minutes. Without him? A disastrous -35.4 per 100 possessions in just 43 minutes.

In other words: he’s the Magic’s heartbeat. No debate.

The Context of a $297 Million Deal

Sure, the number is jaw-dropping. For comparison, only nine players in NBA history had crossed $300 million in career earnings as of last summer. Shaquille O’Neal—arguably the most dominant physical force the league has ever seen—earned $286 million over his career. Banchero might eclipse that on his second contract.

Yes, times have changed. Cap inflation is real. The NBA’s new broadcast deals and revenue growth mean bigger contracts are simply the new normal. Still, it takes a special kind of talent to even be considered for this kind of payday before turning 23.

And frankly, in today’s league, this is the going rate for a potential perennial All-NBA forward. Anthony Edwards (2020 No.1 pick) and Cade Cunningham (2021 No.1 pick) are both expected to make All-NBA in their fourth seasons—thus qualifying for the designated rookie max—and Banchero is tracking along the exact same arc.

Missed the All-Star Game this year? That’s only because of an early injury. He dropped a 50-point triple-double in just his fourth game of the season (50 points, 13 boards, 9 assists). Had he stayed healthy, he was a lock to repeat as an All-Star and perhaps push for All-NBA this season.

Peer and League-Wide Validation

Players and analysts alike are already acknowledging Banchero's arrival.

Jaylen Brown: “He’s the engine for that team. A phenomenal young talent with a bright future.”
Jayson Tatum: “I’m proud of him. What he did in this series was unbelievable.” (Tatum is Banchero’s fellow Duke alum.)
DeMarcus Cousins: “The kid’s got sky-high potential. He’s an MVP-type player in the making. If Orlando adds the right pieces, he’ll level up again.”

And among Banchero’s peers? In a recent anonymous poll of 158 NBA players conducted by The Athletic, he ranked sixth as the player most likely to be the “face of the league” five years from now. That’s ahead of some already established stars.

Why the Magic Can’t Wait

The question isn’t “should they?” but rather “what are they waiting for?”

Banchero is just 22 years old. He’s already a two-time playoff performer. He’s already proven he can carry a team through the fire. He’s a former No.1 pick who hasn’t just lived up to the hype—he’s blown past expectations. And he hasn’t even hit his prime yet.

The Magic are one or two pieces away from being a perennial second-round team or better in the East. Adding another shooter or secondary creator could unleash even more from Banchero's game. But what’s already clear is this: if the Magic don’t lock him down now, some other team would jump at the chance if he ever became available.

Final Take

A $297 million contract might sound insane on the surface. But the NBA isn’t a surface-level business. It’s about stars. It’s about big-stage impact. And it’s about betting on youth with proven playoff mettle.

Banchero has it. He’s not just scoring points—he’s defining moments.

The Magic may have been bounced early. But their future? It starts with Paolo—and it starts now. Sign the deal, hand him the keys, and don’t look back.

Language Highlight:
Paolo Banchero doesn’t just play the game—he commands it. He’s not a product of hype; he’s the architect of his own legend. If $297 million seems steep, maybe the league should prepare for a reality where it’s a bargain.

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