NBA Script? Mavericks Win No. 1 Pick With 1.8% Odds—Coincidence or League Conspiracy?

The ping-pong balls have bounced, and with them, a wave of controversy has erupted. On May 13, the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery took place, and against all logic, all odds, and perhaps all notions of randomness, the Dallas Mavericks walked away with the No. 1 overall pick. The same Mavericks who entered the night with a mere 1.8% chance of winning the top spot—lower than almost every other lottery team. It’s a result that has left fans stunned, rival teams frustrated, and skeptics shouting louder than ever: “NBA, you’re not even pretending anymore!”

Let’s unpack the facts and the whispers.

The Math Behind the Madness

A 1.8% chance is minuscule. In fact, in the entire history of the NBA Lottery, only three teams have won the No. 1 pick with lower odds:

• Orlando Magic in 1993 (1.52%)

• Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014 (1.7%)

• Chicago Bulls in 2008 (1.7%)

Dallas now joins that ultra-exclusive—and ultra-suspect—club. This is especially infuriating for teams like the Hornets, Jazz, and Wizards, who spent the entire season marinating in mediocrity, fielding tank squads with hopes of landing the prized first pick. Each of those teams had a 14% chance at the top spot. The result?

• Hornets: 4th pick

• Jazz: 5th pick

• Wizards: 6th pick

In a supposed system built for parity, the house keeps winning.

The Prize: Cooper Flagg, the Next Franchise Anchor

The 2025 draft class is widely regarded as a generational crop, and its crown jewel is Duke’s 18-year-old phenom Cooper Flagg. Standing 6’9” with a 7’4” wingspan, Flagg has already drawn comparisons to Anthony Davis for his two-way impact, freakish agility, and mature approach to the game. Averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, Flagg didn’t just dominate college ball—he elevated his team to a Final Four appearance.

Shams Charania summed it up best: “He plays like a 10-year vet. The way he moves, thinks, and competes—this kid isn’t waiting to be great. He already is.”

So now, with the No. 1 pick all but guaranteed to be Flagg, the question isn’t who the Mavericks will pick—it’s whether the system was ever fair to begin with.

The Luka Doncic Trade: The Chess Move That Sparked It All

Let’s rewind to February. Dallas shocked the league by trading away Luka Doncic—yes, the Luka Doncic—to the Lakers. The move stunned fans and experts alike. Why would a franchise punt on a generational superstar in his prime?

At the time, some speculated the league might be orchestrating a Hollywood power play: unite Luka with LeBron for maximum marketability and playoff drama, while quietly laying groundwork to compensate Dallas with a future asset. Now that the Mavericks have won the No. 1 pick, the conspiracy theorists aren’t looking so crazy.

After all, this wouldn’t be the first time.

History Repeats: When Coincidence Feels Scripted

The NBA lottery has long been fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Let’s roll the tape:

• 2019: The Pelicans trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers, then miraculously land Zion Williamson with just 6% odds.

• 2012: The then-New Orleans Hornets trade Chris Paul, then win the right to draft Anthony Davis.

• 2003: LeBron James enters the draft. The Cavaliers—his hometown team—win the No. 1 pick.

• 2008: Chicago Bulls snag Derrick Rose (1.7% odds), a hometown hero, just as the team needs a marketable savior.

• 2014: LeBron announces his return to Cleveland. The Cavaliers win the No. 1 pick again—their third in four years.

• 1998-1999: Jordan retires. The Bulls get the No. 1 pick.

• 2001: Jordan returns—as a Wizard. Washington wins the lottery.

• 2002: Hakeem Olajuwon leaves Houston. The Rockets win the lottery and draft Yao Ming, tapping the Chinese market.

These "coincidences" read more like plot points in a well-scripted drama than the result of statistical randomness.

LeBron James himself once quipped, “Letting Ewing go to the Knicks, letting Rose go to Chicago, letting me stay in Cleveland—we all know why that happens.”

Nine Laugh-Cry Emojis That Spoke Volumes

Right after the Mavericks secured the top pick, LeBron took to social media and posted not one, not two—but nine laugh-cry emojis. No words. Just nine symbols dripping with sarcasm. Message received: he knows something’s up. So do we.

The Curious Case of Dallas’ Ticket Prices

Here’s where things get even weirder. After trading away Luka, the Mavericks raised their season ticket prices. At the time, fans were outraged. Now it all makes sense. They knew. Or at least, they believed. You don’t hike prices after dumping your franchise player—unless you know you’ve got another one coming.

Adding fuel to the fire? The WNBA’s Dallas Wings just used the No. 1 pick to select superstar Paige Bueckers. Two No. 1 picks, two transcendent prospects, one city—within weeks of each other. That’s not synergy. That’s theater.

What Now? A Glimpse at the Mavericks' Post-Draft Roster

Assuming Cooper Flagg is the pick—and barring a trade, he will be—the Mavericks could be looking at an opening night lineup of:

• PG: Kyrie Irving

• SG: Klay Thompson

• SF: Cooper Flagg

• PF: Anthony Davis

• C: Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford

On the bench? PJ Washington, Max Christie, Caleb Martin. Not bad for a team that just dealt away a superstar.

Dallas has size, defense, shooting, and versatility. They have a young core and veteran leadership. In an era where positional size and two-way versatility determine playoff survival, this team checks every box.

What About the Others?

Let’s not forget the other lottery winners and losers.

• The Sixers didn’t just keep their pick—they landed at No. 3, giving them a blue-chip rookie to pair with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and potentially Paul George.

• The Spurs leapt from No. 8 to No. 2. Rumors already swirl that they may use that pick to draft USC’s Isaiah Harper or Colorado’s KJ Bailey—or flip it to Milwaukee in a potential Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster.

And then there are the tanking teams left holding the bag. Charlotte, Utah, Washington—teams that sacrificed a season chasing a dream that ended with a harsh reminder: tanking only works when the script says it should.

In the end, the NBA is entertainment. It always has been. But somewhere between storylines and sponsorships, between media rights and market sizes, fans still expect a game that feels earned. This year’s lottery doesn’t just stretch credibility—it chokes it.

The Mavericks won big. But the NBA may have lost something even more important: trust.

And if this is the league's grand production? At least hand the audience a program—because right now, it feels like we’re all just extras in a play we never auditioned for.